The Institution for Chemical Engineers (IChemE) is a prestigious international group of scientists and professionals with over 35,000 members in about 100 countries. Global warming is the long-term warming of the planet’s overall temperature. That kind of weather happens even during a long-term warming trend for the planet. And the media constantly publishes the incorrect data and seeks to have governments and industries respond to it by lambasting fossil fuel users. The draft statement itself is pure alarmism. Quote re. Science: The last decade, 2000-2009, was the hottest on record, according to Skeptical Science. We keep waiting. The effective height of emission must approximate the equilibrium temperature (226 K for Venus). John and I look at the tropical and global lower- and mid- troposphere. My understanding is that about half the extra warming is from increased water vapor and the other half from changes in clouds. And if both El Nino events had been included in the time frame, observed warming would have been more. If the response of the author is satisfactionary for the rest, declare it as “luck” Can we stop climate change and how will innovation help? it seems like cherry picking. By the time it ends, 2020 will go down as one of three warmest years on record, despite a La Nina cooling of the central Pacific that often lowers temperatures globally, the WMO report said. But all this talk of global warming is not overblown. 1040 + 660 = 1,700 / 100 = 17 C “This is a question borne of ignorance, but how do we know the issue isn’t that models are getting it wrong but that there’s something wrong with the radiosonde data? Global warming refers to the steady temperature rise on our planet. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Or fairly expensive but certainly within the amount energy we can make. human intelligence or artificial intelligence needs intelligent efforts to get the best data and understand external factors and internal response. Or use pejorative language toward people who point out that they are too unreliable for policy.. So global average surface air temperature is 11.4 C. What about the effects? The justification for your intervals seems fine. To avoid irreparable social, economic and environmental damage, it is essential that we accelerate our efforts to decarbonize our economic systems and stabilize the levels of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, if we are to have any chance of limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, beyond which catastrophic consequences are more likely. However, it is the unique combination of weak overall negative feedback and moderate radiative forcing that allows several CMIP6 models to achieve high ECS values beyond the CMIP5 range. I'm not an expert on that, but we listen to those who have been following it and it's very impressive what these groups have done. Inequality. This phenomenon is the differences in emissivity. Politics leading science????? In short, yes, there are things we can do … Just in terms of what we call global average surface air temperature- how effect the number of 15 C. The time frame used, was one where there should be traction. It is so weak it cannot be measured. The Reason Antarctica Is Melting: Shifting Winds, Driven by Global Warming. It snows more when polar oceans are thawed, polar sequestered ice grows, spreads out and that causes colder. Willard: I deliver an algorithm to you if you don’t like a papers outcome and you can’t find any mistakes in it: The aforementioned increase in CMIP6 mean cloud feedback is related to changes in model representation We also ran the results extending the data to 2018 by including some scenario forcings for 2015-2018. and Then There’s Physics: The key thing to bear in mind is that the authors had to choose some future emission scenarios, which then produced a change in forcing, which then led to the change in surface temperature. On the other hand there is a physical phenomenon which has a strong influence in the cooling of Earth’s surface. –popesclimatetheory | September 1, 2020 at 12:36 pm | Reply First of all, there is now voluminous research showing that businesses that fully integrate ESG factors into their business plans are more profitable in almost every sector of the global economy. To understand what this means for humanity, it is necessary to understand what global warming is, how scientists know it's happening, and how they predict future climate. But we are all living with the consequences of climate modelers stubbornly using generation after generation of models that exhibit too much surface and tropospheric warming, in addition to running grossly exaggerated forcing scenarios (e.g. These research dollars could be better spent on greater causes to benefit humankind. Dave Winterflood. And we have had, for all of that time, a conviction that the world was moving in this direction. noncloud feedbacks are essentially unchanged on average in CMIP6. pointed to the exaggerated warming in the tropical troposphere as a “potentially serious inconsistency.” But rather than fixing it since then, modelers have made it worse.”. prediction of .8c of warming which almost precisely matched the actual. Is the dominant feedback in the “models”? Compare the red box/whiskers to the black lines. Preventive solutions towards climate catastrophe” and to encourage young minds and their research abilities by providing an opportunity to meet the experts in the field of Global Warming and Natural Disasters. I say, strike a balance between order and change and the transformation will will the best we can make of it. This, and other predictions like it, led to the “millions of climate refugees” and other armageddon pictures being painted at the time. “Why not 90% lost to radiation and 10% returned convectively?” B) The police are completely deluded with respect to the actual factors that drive muggings. And when the Antarctic opens up, there will be a lot of land for both utilizing and preserving. The climate is self correcting. Uniformed ‘me-too’ climate statements do not bring us closer to thermodynamic reality.”. You can’t doubt the current forecast without being some sort of bad person (“serial disinformer”, etc.). As the human population has increased, so has the volume of fossil fuels burned. 2. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=12.9;-16.3;4&l=temperature-2m&t=20200903/0000. Do any of these climate models currently take into account the relative warming effect of CO2 in different regions ? aljo1816 Ironically, if the water vapor effect is close to negligible, and the increase in temperature is only that attributable to increased CO2 )about 1/3 of the warming predicted by Charney) the correlation improves dramatically. Probably. Water also evaporates and warms the planet. The reason seems to be that about half the models increased their positive feedback from clouds. Atmospheric warming happens due to the Earth’s surface IR emission. In order to calculate atmospheric warming one has to use Φ = 0,47. 2. To understand why, you have to first know the difference between weather and climate. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming. Cracked record says, why do we care? ... without debate moderators asking him a single question about global warming. I have been sternly informed by communications experts that “global warming” is a better term for what’s happening than “climate change.” I have also been told the opposite. Dr. Seema Yasmin talks to three Covid-19 vaccine researchers who are developing three different types of vaccines. John and I didn’t know about the Mitchell team’s work until after their paper came out, and they likewise didn’t know about ours. So why worry too much about a change in the actually small effect of IR scattering by CO2, a small part of total GHE, which is itself just one part of the overall SST raising effect of our smart atmospheric lagging, and is all very well controlled by ocean evaporative response without difficulty. Though there have been previous periods of climatic change, since the mid-20th century the rate of human impact on Earth's climate system and the global scale of that impact have been unprecedented. 3. The SW low cloud feedback is larger on average in CMIP6 due to larger reductions in low cloud cover and weaker increases in cloud liquid water path with warming. aljo1816 But in terms of average global surface air temperature, I think gets much colder than 11.4 C. As you have seriously crippled Earth’s heat engine. Back in 2005 in the first report of the then-new US Climate Change Science Program, Karl et al. Steven Mosher: radiosonde data is notorious crap. Across the two papers it emerges that the models overshoot historical warming from the near-surface through the upper troposphere, in the tropics and globally. Pingback: New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming - Self-Reliance Central, Pingback: Climate Models | Transterrestrial Musings, Pingback: Ross McKitrick: New Confirmation That Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming - The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF). Whyever would you do that? Interesting thought experiment. Unless this is incorporated into the models there will be too high a value put on the global Sensitivity parameter. There still seems to be no new “Week in review – Science” thread, and comments on the old one are now closed. But in the chaos of the future, a new order will emerge, and we will find a good future. The warming world is getting closer to passing a temperature limit set by global leaders five years ago and may exceed it in the next decade or so, according to a new United Nations report. See my manuscript to determine all of the serious mathematical flaws in climate models to explain why Ross, results are eminently reasonable. We believe that we're in the early stages of a sustainability revolution, one that will be larger than the Industrial Revolution with the speed of the digital revolution. Is anyone aware of any definite studies on the water vapor concentrations over time? Many conditions affect weather. Internal factors store energy in oceans and ice and have internal responses that have never been studied or considered. How could we tolerate the fact that the net worth of the so-called typical Black family, compared to the net worth of a typical white family, it takes 11.5 Black families to make up the net worth of one white family? by Ross McKitrick Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better. They predict too little cooling before 1998 and too much after, and the effects cancel in a linear trend. The red squares are in the high ECS group and the blue circles are in the low ECS group. Polar bears could become nearly extinct by the end of the century as a result of shrinking sea ice in the Arctic if global warming continues unabated, scientists said Monday. The increase in cloud feedback arises solely from the strengthened SW low cloud component, while the non-low cloud feedback has slightly decreased. What happens to tropical land, they roughly become deserts pretty quickly. the Canadian climate model… Yet somehow now, as the firm releases this fourth annual Sustainability Trends Report, Gore seems almost … optimistic. That does not demonstrate that climate models are inaccurate. They're not going away. This basically means that the members are invited to submit comments. Including both steps is then the cherry pick. The blue boxes are still high compared to the observations, especially in the 100-200hPa level (upper-mid troposphere). Just cooled the tropical ocean, and so, would still have fairly warm ocean outside the tropics, they probably some effect upon global circulation, not clear to me what the effect is. Global warming is speeding up Earth’s massive ocean currents. So as this reality becomes more widely known and understood, asset managers who do not integrate ESG factors are definitely at high risk of violating their fiduciary responsibility to their clients. It continues to amaze me that this simple fact has been obscured for 40 years. We care because the hot models are driving draconian government policies. One for you, off topic, slightly. John and I found that models with higher Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (>3.4K) warm faster (not surprisingly), but even the low-ECS group (<3.4K) exhibits warming bias. The associated ECS would be between 1.0 and 2.0K. Yes, there will probably be some short-term and long-term benefits from global warming. Maybe, but it doesn’t matter. Thus the sea ice’s higher reflecting ability doesn’t cool significantly the Earth’s surface. Here’s an extract from a 2011 press release from the IMechE: The technology needed to cut the world’s greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050 already exists, according to a joint statement by eleven of the world’s largest engineering organisations. Jabs = 0,47(1 – a) So πr2. Venus has no ocean whereas the Earth’s surface is mostly water. Is this not the type of problem that Artificial Intelligent computers should be good at solving? or trying to goose upward (green energy! Yes, it's cold. Climate action pledges could curb global warming to 2.1C - analysis Updated / Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 16:40 127 countries which are responsible for around 63% … Aug. 28, 2020 I’m merely a Member of the IET, and my humble opinion is that David’s article is indeed “risible”. Even Generation’s annual sustainability report shows that public attention toward climate change has taken a backseat to concerns about the novel coronavirus. And ultimately when business is on board, when business makes a fundamental change, when investors make a fundamental change, when people generally are demanding that fundamental change, then it becomes much more likely that governments will change the policies to facilitate the emergence of this new, more sustainable, more prosperous, fair, healthy, just world. Where social media is concerned, we're even beginning to see some changes there. First of all, there has been a fundamental shift in thinking in the business world and in the investor world. As a presidential candidate in what turns out to have been a far simpler time, Gore had a reputation for prickliness—for not being the kind of person you’d want to have a beer with, as if that were a valid criterion for choosing a president. Repeal Henry’s Law perhaps? To properly check their model, you need to compare the projection that had a change in forcing that was closest to what we actually experienced. The above grapheme is correct. The greenhouse warming effect of the CO2 400 parts per million is negligible. The two axes are normalized solar energy inputs μ (insolation) to the climate system and a global mean temperature. Thanks. Ironically, the studies I reviewed seemed to approximate the earliest study. For the past decade and a half, Gore, a self-described “recovering politician,” has been a capitalist. Would one of those options be a more intelligent conclusion? When formatting the sea ice gets thicker from the colder water’s side. > If it isn’t going to warm a lot, arguments for change become less convincing. 6. As a result, the boom of global greening since the early 1980s may have slowed the rate of global warming, the researchers say, possibly by as much as 0.2 to 0.25 degrees Celsius. Water vapour in the atmosphere ranges from 8 to 50,000 parts per million .In the tropics it will be in the higher range so the marginal warming effect of a rise in CO2 from 280 to 400 parts will be much less in the tropics. Needs to be mentioned that Earth’s surface emits IR radiation 24/7 all year around. Filled shapes are from the LT layer and open shapes are from the MT layer. The tropics is the zone where the greenhouse forcing is somehow present, because But I don't see it as a competition for attention and awareness. Access to health care!) Investors need to respond to the new realities. You’ve invested in Toast, which is restaurant management technology; ProTerra, for electric buses; Convoy was another—so a couple there in the transit and transportation sector. Let them pretend they’re in it for the science. I see it as a natural relationship, and I do think that there's some real evidence of a broader general awakening. There is only a tiny 10% – 15% of the incident energy is absorbed. Compare this with impact of the surface to space radiative cooling observed over the Antarctic icecap during the austral winter and the generation of katabatic air mass movements off the icecap, Dome Argus Weather Station Temperature Profiles from 09 May to 17 Dec 2008 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335313576_Dome_Argus_Weather_Station_Temperature_Profiles_from_09_May_to_17_Dec_2008, Simon Harrison: And it is not much of a leap to realize that the dire advice from a climate scientist must be taken into account as well. What really drives ice age cycles. If you’re following someone that is arguing volcanoes disprove something about CO2 levels, stop that. Click to access 284c921d0194a443411db7a63772b659a79c.pdf, The Arctic sea ice has a warming and not a cooling effect on the Global Energy Balance. I get it that modeling the climate is incredibly difficult, and no one faults the scientific community for finding it a tough problem to solve. See: They are pretty much at the same level of the models used to predict “SARS-CoV-2” deaths! If we were to picture a third cluster of models with mean global tropospheric warming rates overlapping observations it would have to be positioned roughly in the area I’ve outlined in green. In the near future, as global temperatures inch up, bats will continue to be protected by their body heat, while the pathogens they carry are better able to harm us. Remember, a warmer, wetter climate feeds more and displaces far fewer people than a colder, drier climate. Natural process isn’t going to do this, but it could be done. That still seems to sum up the current situation quite nicely? If a volcano can produce more Carbon dioxide than man in a lifetime then why the alarm. Much like rioting in Portland is described as a peaceful protest by the Left even as the city burns and a secessionist leader assassinates a political adversary in the streets, the global warming establishment of Western academia predicts ever hotter days ahead, even as British senior citizens are forced to burn books to stay warm in cold winters. And in order to do that the atmospheric mass must be increased. The earliest and longest term study going back to 1948 or so, showed declining precipital water in the upper troposphere, but it has been claimed the radiosonde instrumentation was not sufficiently accurate. Second and third coats reduce very little more. https://blog.friendsofscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/July-18-2019-Tucson-DDP-Connolly-Connolly-16×9-format.pdf. Philip, can you provide additional justification for the geometric series limits for Noonworld? Why didn’t you publish my results on the news, especially as you reviewed my manuscript. While the models in the blue cluster (low ECS) do a better job, they still have warming rates in excess of observations. My results are mathematically more rigorous than either We could even ask about morality. Global warming is also changing the water cycle, leading to heavy rainfalls, higher humidity, and floods. 2. The breakthroughs and innovations that we uncover lead to new ways of thinking, new connections, and new industries. Even if the original problem was confined to excess warming in the tropical mid-troposphere, it has now expanded into a more pervasive warm bias throughout the global troposphere. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/corona-and-the-climate-a-comparison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E, The contract is essentially this. If it isn’t going to warm a lot, arguments for change become less convincing. He’s chair of Generation Investment Management, a $20 billion equity firm focusing on environmentally sustainable companies. maybe 35 years isn’t long enough The key fact here is that there is no expectation of skill from climate models because the numerical truncation errors are vastly bigger than the changes in energy flows that are being predicted. These are warm interludes – such as the present time – of relatively short duration and longer duration cold states. And that sounds daunting, but we are finding fundamental changes in the global economy pushing us toward sustainability. OK OK, So we need more money to make more models to get it right! It shouldn’t take more than the normal scientific skepticism to know that this is not possible which is why scientific skeptics have come to believe that global warming alarmism is nothing but a hoax and a scare tactic… a Left vs right political debate having much to do with social science and little to do with natural science. You are correct. So global warming could turn, say, ... starting in 2020, to revise their plans for cutting CO2 emissions. Al Gore: Well, first of all, let me just note for the record that we don't do venture capital investing. On the nighttime side of the model a bias in favour of radiation loss to space causes the model to cool. Do you believe we are damaging the life support systems of the planet? Water evaporates and cools the surface, the water vapor is carried by convection up where it condenses into water or forms ice which releases the energy that was removed from the surface. That is a key variable for economic calculations. The greenhouse warming effect of the CO2 400 parts per million is negligible. While we cannot stop global warming overnight, or even over the next several decades, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). looked at 48 models. See my comment above (and the associated manuscript) about the serious mathematical flaws in climate models that are swept under the rug by the climate modelers. I’m looking for some evidence that 2. or 3. must be wrong. Some of that is even driven by overt disinformation via the internet, some by the politics that you say you're recovering from. Great work ! Of course, it will take as much time as it'll take, because you have to do the large safety studies and they take some time. Climate Theory does not properly consider water in all of its states and does not properly consider the changing of states. Now weaknesses and preparedness and the capacity to respond to this crisis have relevance beyond health care, because it is triggering a new awareness of the need for change and improvements in social safety nets in the role of essential workers. The above diagram focuses on the 1998-2014 span. I'm sure that's something that a lot of investors are going through right now, since the world has dramatically changed in a short amount of time. Secondly, we have found a growing awareness that the world's collective social and economic faith is inextricably linked to that of the natural world. The key point is that the model is designed respond to the physics of a planetary system as measured by the observed parameters (albedo, insolation etc). In any global single-day snapshot of weather since 2012, there was a clear fingerprint of long-term, human-induced global warming. So I just want to ask you to make the connection between an investment fund and the policy and structural changes that seem likely to be necessary. Here is the opening paragraph: “Climate science is established – global climate change is upon us, exacerbated by human activities. This is the overall lapse rate to space that varies the SST, sure. And we think that it's the biggest business and investing opportunity in history. I will say that the pandemic has actually accelerated those changes, and I think that the pandemic is also driving people to take these sustainability factors into account in the planning for a post-pandemic world. I see it coming. The consequences of ignoring scientific advice from epidemiologists and virologists has been brought home to us. We are now overdue for government commitment, with ambitious, concrete emissions targets that give the right signals to industry, so they can be rolled out on a global scale. Please do. That's reflected in the new awareness of the sustainability revolution. The election of Joe Biden as president signals a return to sanity in the federal government's approach to climate change. > the longest interval for which all observational products are available and the models are forced with observed historical inputs. Two-thirds of Kansans think global warming will harm future generations and a majority believe global warming will harm plants, animals and people in developing countries. After all, CO2 emissions are typically the product of chemical reactions (including combustion). The carbon monoxide cars spew is toxic, and CO 2 has led to runaway global warming. I don’t care. I won't go through the rest of the bill of particulars, but it's been obvious for quite a while that the world is changing because human activities are changing the world. 2 Minute Read The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole. Hypothesised by John Wahr and Michael House, quantified by me, the hard way. just doesn't work! When you do so, you find that the model was reasonably good. Quite the opposite. Similarly, the gender equity demands of the last few years are being consolidated. You just keep raising the effective height of emission. Experts say polar bears’ hunting grounds have diminished as the Arctic ice sheet melts due to climate change, forcing them into populated areas as they try to find food.”, Pingback: New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming |. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions also reduces air pollutants from the same sources,” said West. The attack occurred at a campsite near Longyearbyen, the main town of the island in the Svalbard archipelago. Yes. How do you propose to keep climate change in the center of attention? Change your minds and join our cause or cough spit you’re dead.”. But that is not the case: it’s all excess warming. Myth: Global warming has stopped and the Earth has begun to cool. You can access the paper here. The papers are Mitchell et al. The Covid-19 pandemic, he says, has accelerated the kinds of systemic changes he pushed for, first with legislation and then with investments. James McGinn / Genius, https://www.cfact.org/2020/09/02/clintel-challenges-icheme-climate-scaremongering/, CLINTEL challenges IChemE climate scaremongering As such, we see no improvement between the CMIP5 and the CMIP6 models.” (Mitchell et al. ... 2020 at 10:28 a.m. EDT. Covid-19. Here is how CLINTEL puts it: “With all respect, the Institution’s draft statement on climate change is an unquestioning, me-too, statement, political in character and lacking in scientific argument, justification or rationale. And businesses already are beginning to respond to this new reality. Disconnect in the relationship between GMST and ECS, T cell cross-reactivity and the Herd immunity threshold, What the pandemic has taught us about science, Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses, “we find considerable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends, and we show that these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature (these models simulate an unrealistically large global warming).”, “we note here for the record that from 1998 to 2014, the CMIP5 models warm, on average 4 to 5 times faster than the observations, and in one model the warming is 10 times larger than the observations.”, “Throughout the depth of the troposphere, not a single model realization overlaps all the observational estimates.